Key takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) is about to shut August within the purple, its first down-month since April, stoking fears that the downturn might deepen as September begins.
September is normally a foul month for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has a well-established tendency to slip in September.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed within the purple for eight of the previous twelve months, with common returns slipping about −3.80%.
Market veterans name it the “September Effect,” a month when merchants are likely to lock in earnings after summer season rallies or reposition portfolios forward of This fall. Since 1928, as an illustration, the S&P 500 index’s returns in September have averaged round -1.20%.
Often buying and selling in sync with broader danger belongings, Bitcoin can develop into a sufferer of this seasonal drag.
However, since 2013, each inexperienced September for Bitcoin has come solely after a bruising August, a sample that hints of sellers front-running.
Related: Bitcoin worth loses key multiyear assist trendline: A traditional BTC fakeout?
Analyst Rekt Fencer says {that a} “September dump just isn’t coming” this yr, citing Bitcoin’s efficiency in 2017.
The chart overlay of 2017 and 2025 reveals a near-mirror picture. In each cycles, Bitcoin slipped sharply in late August, discovered footing at a key assist zone, after which reversed increased.
Back in 2017, that retest marked the ultimate shakeout earlier than BTC worth rocketed to $20,000.
Fast-forward to as we speak, and Bitcoin is as soon as once more hovering close to a multimonth base between $105,000 and $110,000, a degree that might be the launchpad for one more parabolic leg upward.
Bitcoin might retest its file excessive in 4-6 weeks
The $105,000–$110,000 zone acted as resistance earlier within the yr, however it has now flipped into assist, a traditional bullish construction in technical evaluation.
One vital upside sign comes from the so-called “hidden bullish divergence.” Even although Bitcoin’s worth has dropped, its relative energy index (RSI), a well-liked momentum indicator, hasn’t fallen as a lot.
That normally means the market just isn’t as weak as the value chart suggests, hinting that patrons are quietly stepping again in.
Analyst ZYN means that Bitcoin might be on monitor for a recent all-time excessive above $124,500 throughout the subsequent 4–6 weeks, owing to those technical patterns that justify a possible rally in September.
A weaker greenback might help Bitcoin bulls in September
Currency merchants are turning bearish on the greenback as a slowing US economic system and anticipated Fed charge cuts weigh on sentiment. They see the dollar sliding one other 8% this yr, a decline compounded by Donald Trump’s criticizing the Fed.
As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) had slipped to −0.25, its weakest degree in two years.
That shift improves Bitcoin’s, in addition to the broader crypto market’s, odds of climbing in September if the greenback’s droop continues.
“The Fed will begin the cash printers in This fall of this yr,” analyst Ash Crypto mentioned final week, including:
“Two charge cuts imply trillions will stream into the crypto market. We are about to enter a parabolic part the place Altcoins will explode 10x -50x.”
This article doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
