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Bitcoin could also be caught in limbo till October, in keeping with crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz, who delivered a sobering evaluation of the present market setup throughout his August 3 video evaluation. The veteran dealer described Bitcoin’s technicals and seasonal context as essentially uninviting, cautioning that “there’s nothing to do” till a extra compelling risk-reward profile emerges—possible not earlier than This fall.
Bitcoin Bulls On Pause
Olszewicz started by referencing final week’s Bollinger Band squeeze, a technical sample that always precedes vital volatility. The squeeze resolved to the draw back following a mixture of weak US jobs knowledge, adverse ETF flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions—together with stories of US nuclear submarine actions close to Russia. “Markets actually didn’t like that,” he remarked.
The ETF circulate knowledge was central to his outlook. While Ethereum just lately noticed a resurgence in ETF inflows—contributing to one among its strongest Julys ever—Bitcoin’s flows flipped adverse. “Flows, if something, are what can save us in these two months of doldrums,” he mentioned, referring to August and September. Yet, the present trajectory exhibits little promise of reversal. “The determination tree obtained lots wider after breaking down,” he defined. “Because within the subsequent two months, it’s usually junk. That’s simply what it’s.”
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Olszewicz underscored the seasonal softness of Q3 for each equities and crypto, notably emphasizing that traditionally, August and September are low-activity months. “Wake me up when September ends,” he quipped, reinforcing that merchants ought to count on little from the market till October—a month traditionally related to robust efficiency. “You don’t need to miss October, even when October is adverse 80%. This is about possibilities.”
From a technical perspective, Olszewicz famous that Bitcoin stays in a weak zone after stalling on the yearly pivot round $122,000. “Despite this great-looking chart sample, we simply stopped useless chilly at $122,000,” he mentioned. “If we break $122,000, the subsequent degree is $150,000—that’s psychological, it’s the measured transfer, and it’s the yearly pivot.”
However, a extra quick concern lies within the potential for a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which might set off a promote sign in his system. “It’s a Pavlovian response. Bearish TK cross, you shut your longs,” he mentioned bluntly. “If we revisit 100 at this level, you’re going to get lots of people speaking about end-of-cycle stuff.”
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The Commitment of Traders (COT) knowledge from CME additional amplifies the warning. “Commercials have dropped off a cliff,” Olszewicz warned. “Not one thing you need to see in the event you’re bullish.” The knowledge suggests a pointy discount in institutional positioning on the lengthy aspect, including one other layer of headwind for the BTC value.
Still, not all is misplaced. Olszewicz pointed to historic precedents, such because the troublesome August and September of 2023 when Bitcoin was battered by Mt. Gox distributions and German authorities sell-offs. Despite the noise, Bitcoin rallied in October following the approval of spot ETFs and held above the cloud for an prolonged interval. “It can appear like the tip for a lot of, many causes, and we will nonetheless make it,” he burdened.
For merchants seeking to re-enter the market, he recognized the $117K–$120K vary as a possible re-entry zone if BTC can reclaim that space throughout the subsequent two weeks. “It’s as much as the bulls to carry this simply flat for 2 weeks,” he mentioned. “It shouldn’t be that onerous to do if there are patrons on this market.”
But till then, he stays on the sidelines: “There’s simply nothing to do. It’s in no man’s land for the time being.”
With Bitcoin in a technical holding sample, adverse flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off indicators from legacy markets, Olszewicz made it clear that forcing trades on this surroundings may show expensive. His recommendation? Stay affected person, keep liquid, and watch October.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,517.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
