Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who as soon as predicted Bitcoin would sooner crash to $100 earlier than it hits $100,000, has admitted loads has modified since his feedback seven years in the past — although he seemingly nonetheless hasn’t come round to Bitcoin.
“Almost a decade in the past, I used to be the Harvard economist that stated Bitcoin was extra more likely to be price $100 than 100K. What did I miss?” he wrote on X on Wednesday, referring to a phase on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in March 2018.
Rogoff is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and likewise writer of ‘Our Dollar, Your Problem’, which was printed in May.
In 2018, Rogoff stated that authorities regulation would set off a drop in Bitcoin costs.
However, for the reason that Trump administration received the November election, it broke $100,000 in December 2024 and has surged greater than 80% to a brand new all-time excessive.
“I used to be far too optimistic in regards to the US coming to its senses about wise cryptocurrency regulation,” he stated, indicating his stance on crypto hasn’t modified.
Bitcoin competes with fiat foreign money
“Second, I didn’t recognize how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to function the transactions medium of selection within the twenty-trillion greenback world underground economic system,” he continued on X.
However, Bitcoin has change into an inflation hedge in lots of international locations the place native currencies have been massively devalued by governments.
Illicit exercise tied to cryptocurrencies was round $50 billion in 2024, in accordance to Chainalysis, however it is a drop within the ocean and fewer than 1% of what’s laundered utilizing money.
“Third, I didn’t anticipate a state of affairs the place regulators, and particularly the regulator in chief, would be capable to openly maintain a whole bunch of tens of millions (if not billions) of {dollars} in cryptocurrencies seemingly with out consequence given the blatant battle of curiosity.”
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Crypto X decides to take it as a win anyway
Bitwise’s chief funding officer, Matt Hougan, responded, stating that Rogoff “Failed to think about {that a} decentralized venture, which drew energy from folks and never centralized establishments, might succeed at scale.”
Meanwhile, a researcher at digital belongings brokerage FalconX, David Lawant, stated he was “very grateful” to Rogoff, as his e book ‘The Curse of Cash’ was “so horrible” that it was “one of many issues that pushed me to BTC.”
Head of digital belongings analysis and VanEck, Matthew Sigel, posted his record of Bitcoin’s loudest critics on Tuesday, rating Rogoff in ninth place. He “wrote Bitcoin’s obituary too early from inside his personal echo chamber,” stated Sigel.
“Maybe you missed it since you reside in an echo chamber, similar as while you lock replies,” he added, referring to Rogoff stopping folks from replying to his posts on X.
“Fundamentals matter: fiat debasement, demographic wealth shifts, and world demand for a impartial reserve asset.”
Ironically, the Harvard Management Company, which is accountable for managing the college’s $53 billion endowment fund, reported a $116 million funding in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month.
⚡ FLASHBACK: In 2018, a Harvard economist stated $BTC is extra more likely to hit $100 than $100K.
Now they invested $116M. pic.twitter.com/YDdZylmzdk
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 10, 2025
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