Elon Musk is elevating new questions on Bitcoin’s long-term security within the face of speedy advances in quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO turned to his AI chatbot, Grok, to learn how doubtless it’s that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm might be cracked by {powerful} quantum machines.
His query got here simply as IBM revealed main plans for its next-generation quantum system known as Blue Jay, which is predicted to succeed in 2,000 international qubits by 2033.
Grok Predicts Low Risk, At Least For Now
According to Grok, the chance of Bitcoin’s encryption getting cracked by quantum computer systems may be very low over the following 5 years. The AI estimates the possibility stays near zero throughout that interval.
But when looking to 2035, the likelihood goes up barely—although it nonetheless stays beneath 10%. These numbers are primarily based on knowledgeable assessments and present quantum capabilities.
Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and knowledgeable surveys, the likelihood of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (by way of Grover’s algorithm, decreasing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is close to 0% within the subsequent 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires hundreds of thousands of error-corrected…
— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk’s issues should not popping out of nowhere. Companies like Google and Microsoft are creating their very own quantum platforms—Willow and Majorana 1—which have sparked debate over whether or not cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may sooner or later be weak to assaults from these ultra-powerful techniques.
Right now, most quantum techniques solely have round 1,000 qubits. That’s far under the hundreds of thousands of error-corrected qubits scientists imagine are obligatory to interrupt Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses.
Grok added that stronger algorithms like SHA-3 or SHA-512 might be used as replacements if wanted sooner or later.
Quantum Computers Vs. Blockchain
Meanwhile, based on a current evaluation by international auditing agency Deloitte, quantum computer systems may quickly threaten the safety of the Bitcoin blockchain, with round 25% of Bitcoins presently vulnerable to being stolen by way of quantum assaults.
Eventually, quantum computer systems may turn out to be {powerful} sufficient to interrupt your complete transaction course of, the analysts mentioned. To stop this, the Bitcoin community would wish to undertake post-quantum cryptography—an rising however advanced resolution presently being explored by cryptographers worldwide.
Image: The Quantum Insider
IBM’s Blue Jay Adds Pressure
IBM’s new system, Blue Jay, may have greater than a billion gate operations—one thing a lot past the capabilities of at the moment’s computer systems.
It’s a part of the corporate’s bigger effort to be on the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With different trade giants equivalent to Google and Microsoft not far behind, the competitors is heating up.
Tesla And SpaceX Both Hold Bitcoin
Musk’s curiosity isn’t simply tutorial. Tesla presently owns 11,500 Bitcoins, price about $1.3 billion at present costs. SpaceX additionally holds a large quantity, reportedly round $850 million price of BTC. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his private portfolio.
With the extent of these holdings, it’s no marvel that Musk wish to get forward of potential threats. His tweet is seemingly relaxed, but it surely signifies elevated consciousness within the tech world about how quantum advances may have an effect on the world of crypto and finance.
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