Bitcoin has bounced again above $112,000 after slipping to $107,000 final week, its lowest mark since July. The rebound has stirred hope amongst merchants, however analysts stay break up on whether or not the present upswing can maintain by way of September.
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September’s Track Record Under Scrutiny
Historical knowledge reveals September hasn’t been form to Bitcoin throughout post-halving years. In 2017, the coin ended the month with an in depth to eight% loss, whereas in 2021 the decline was 7%.
Even additional again, in 2013, Bitcoin dropped 1.60% in the identical month. That sample has led some specialists to argue {that a} retest of key technical ranges this 12 months is nothing uncommon.
Benjamin Cowen, head of ITC Crypto, has repeatedly pointed to the 20-week easy transferring common as a marker.
According to him, September tends to convey worth dips towards that stage earlier than a fourth-quarter restoration takes maintain. Cowen believes the latest pullback matches the broader rhythm seen in earlier cycles.
Historically, #Bitcoin finds a low in September of the post-halving 12 months, after which bounces off of it into the market cycle high that happens in This fall. pic.twitter.com/CVbcPOUojM
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 3, 2025
Mixed Views On Cycle Consistency
Not everyone seems to be satisfied. Some analysts have raised questions on whether or not the cycle is breaking from custom. They highlighted that Bitcoin usually data positive aspects in August earlier than falling again in September. This time, nevertheless, the other occurred.
Bitcoin closed August with a 6.25% loss. That stands in stark distinction to August 2017, when the coin surged 64%, and August 2021, when it gained 15%.
Those two strong months had been every adopted by abrupt September declines. Analysts imagine that present knowledge point out a distinct configuration might be at work, with macroeconomic parameters corresponding to charge cuts being extra pronounced over worth motion.
Calls That The Bottom Is Already In
Despite the cautious tone from some analysts, there are voices pointing to a brighter near-term outlook, saying the low for September could already be behind Bitcoin.
The asset opened the month at $108,200, touched a excessive of $110,100, and fell to $107,000 earlier than rebounding. Based on that sequence, analysts recommend the market could keep away from setting new lows this month.
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Cowen, nevertheless, continues to emphasize that corrections after setting recent highs are a part of the cycle. He factors to August’s new report peak as proof that the market is following the identical blueprint as earlier years.
In his view, the retreat to the 20-week SMA is much less a warning signal than a setup for a powerful year-end rally.
While the controversy over September’s end result continues, most analysts agree on one level: short-term turbulence is unlikely to change the long-term image.
Recent knowledge have made clear that regardless of short-term dips, Bitcoin is predicted to commerce far greater within the years forward.
Featured picture from Meta, chart from TradingView
