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In a brand new episode of Coin Stories with host Nathalie Brunell, investor and podcaster Preston Pysh provided a structurally grounded reply to a query many Bitcoin holders have been asking all summer season: if company treasuries preserve asserting large buys, why does worth preserve chopping and fading? Pysh’s prognosis just isn’t a couple of sudden lack of conviction from long-term holders, however about market-structure dynamics launched by refined “fast-money” companies which might be designed to suppress volatility whereas extracting foundation and funding premia.
Why Is Bitcoin Not Rising Much Higher?
Brunell framed the dilemma bluntly, asking why spot Bitcoin has gone sideways regardless of momentum from “the Trump administration” and “all these company treasury corporations shopping for,” and who’s “actually on the promote facet” creating headwinds for “$150k and $200k” targets folks nonetheless float for year-end. Pysh started with empathy for that dissonance: “I undoubtedly can really feel the frustration and the ache as a result of prefer it simply seems like every single day there’s one other announcement of, oh, so and so firm simply purchased ten thousand plus bitcoin. The worth was down on the day or no matter.”
Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Strong In ‘Wall Of Worry’, Path To $183,000 Remains Open – Analyst
From there, he pointed to the rise of delta-neutral, volatility-harvesting methods run by main Wall Street buying and selling homes. “If I used to be going to guess what I believe it’s, I believe that you’ve quick cash Wall Street merchants—Jane Street to form of identify one actor and there’s a lot of them on the market—that… are within the enterprise of sucking volatility out of the market and actually not having any publicity, apart from they’re going lengthy and quick concurrently they usually’re arbitraging the distinction.”
In follow, these trades pair spot, futures, and perpetual swaps so the desk is directionally flat whereas clipping the unfold. The second-order impact, Pysh argued, is seen on the chart: “It’s going to make that volatility proceed to break down because it’s going up… the volatility is getting additional and additional dampened in that course of.”
That suppression, he continued, modifications how an uptrend feels. Instead of the everyday explosive expansions which have traditionally punctuated Bitcoin bull markets, worth motion compresses into narrower bands, punctuated by mean-reversion.
“Where I believe it takes you is that this situation the place the spring is coiling and it form of pops in some way,” he stated. Directionally, the multi-cycle development nonetheless factors greater, however he resisted the lazy inference {that a} textbook volatility squeeze should resolve vertically. “Markets are extremely depending on liquidity… They’re depending on all these different exterior elements… I’m not… saying the volatility is collapsing, it’s going up and we’re going to… the moon. I’m not saying that.”
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Liquidity, in Pysh’s framework, is the gating variable that determines whether or not a coiled spring truly releases to the upside. He watches world threat proxies as a read-through for fiat liquidity somewhat than confining evaluation to crypto-native flows.
“When I’m trying on the liquidity metrics of simply world fairness is an effective way I wish to… view… I’ll take a look at all the worldwide fairness markets and in the event that they’re all ripping, that’s telling me that the markets are flush with liquidity—fiat liquidity. And proper now that’s what we’re seeing… they’re all like bidding. So to me, that’s a wholesome indicator that Bitcoin might go greater. But it additionally relies on whether or not that, regardless of the supply of that’s, continues to persist.”
Feels like essentially the most bearish bull market in Bitcoin.
What has been placing the promote stress on btc? https://t.co/9EUuLJnerH pic.twitter.com/vPvpimm7rX
— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) August 23, 2025
Even so, Pysh cautioned towards treating volatility compression as a deterministic countdown to six-figure worth targets. “People simply should watch out… none of this can be a assure that it’s going to proceed to tear or that compression is signaling that we’re going to $200k in weeks.”
He additionally acknowledged that, if one nonetheless subscribes to the four-year halving cadence, this leg seems to be completely different from prior cycles. “We’ve perhaps seen slightly little bit of what we’ve seen, which is that this dampening of what now we have traditionally seen within the worth motion… At this a part of the cycle… you’ll have seen a really aggressive transfer form of already going down and… to be trustworthy with you, again… Christmas timeframe I’d have guessed by now,” he admitted, trailing off as if to concede that the anticipated vertical growth merely hasn’t materialized on schedule.
At press time, BTC traded at $111,484.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
