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Bitcoin’s subsequent main leg larger might rely much less on halving lore and extra on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market word on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger argued that the cycle’s length might be set by the Federal Reserve’s management change—particularly, who President Trump nominates to switch Jerome Powell—moderately than by any mounted four-year sample. “I’ve a excessive diploma of confidence this cycle will not be over as a result of I’m anticipating modifications within the Fed to carry on significantly extra dovish financial coverage, which isn’t priced in in the intervening time; this might begin to get priced in as soon as Trump publicizes his nominee to switch Powell,” Krüger wrote.
Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair
Krüger dismissed worries {that a} pullback from report highs marks the highest, calling it “outstanding how each time you get a correction from new highs so many individuals begin to fret concerning the cycle high. Over and over once more.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The idea of a 4 yr cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles in the past, and 2021 was a coincidence, because it was macro pushed.” In his view, the final cycle ended as a result of the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not due to any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic.
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The nomination clock is seen. Powell’s present four-year time period as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the previous two weeks signifies the White House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or 4” names, with an announcement doubtlessly coming earlier than anticipated. Candidates floated in mainstream protection embrace former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett amongst others, underscoring the market’s give attention to how dovish—or not—the subsequent chair is likely to be.
In the nearer time period, the coverage calendar nonetheless drives the tape. Powell’s ultimate Jackson Hole look, scheduled through the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is extensively framed as a tone-setting second earlier than the September FOMC. Consensus protection flags the danger that Powell leans hawkish to protect optionality, whilst charges markets handicap a minimize subsequent month; Krüger leans “barely bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to scale back the percentages of a September minimize) is sensible, for the Fed to retain optionality and never let the market push itself right into a nook.”
Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing recent all-time highs in mid-July and once more final week. Traders are watching the earlier $112,000 excessive as preliminary draw back cushion, with the psychologically crucial $100,000 degree, the overhead reference stays the $122,000–$124,000 zone of latest peaks. Krüger additionally highlights that “BTC is having a really onerous time going up sans leverage with out triggers,” some extent echoed by derivatives alerts exhibiting compressed threat urge for food.
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Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, gradual ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC choices (DVOL/BVIV) has sat close to two-year lows, and open curiosity on institutional venues stays off July highs, signaling a extra measured stance from levered gamers into Jackson Hole. Krüger additionally noticed that futures foundation had eased alongside the pullback—a basic signal of froth leaking out—whereas choices markets present a renewed bid for draw back safety on dips.
The macro through-line is easy: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will start discounting a looser stance nicely earlier than the primary coverage transfer, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent steering) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade on the margin.
For now, the quick catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, adopted by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—whereas worth trades between well-defined ranges with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t finish due to valuations or over-extension; the tip wants a serious set off.” In 2025, that set off could be a reputation.
At press time, BTC traded at $115,683.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
