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CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn used right now’s value weak spot to publish a granular, 10-part “Bitcoin Market Analysis” on X that dissects the post-ATH panorama with on-chain element and a transparent technical line within the sand. “Bitcoin broke its all-time excessive, however right here’s the catch: long-term holders are [starting] to promote into the energy,” he wrote, including that what issues now’s how the market digests that offer above and across the breakout zone. In his framing, the primary stress check is underway.
Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?
The thread anchors round one headline-grabbing datapoint: “the LTH promoting strain consists of the 80,000 BTC bought by the Satoshi-era pockets.” That description is Maartunn’s interpretation of July’s extraordinary motion of eight “historical” wallets that shifted roughly 80,000 BTC after ~14 years of dormancy through Galaxy Digital.
Beyond the drama of this single entity, Maartunn argues that habits throughout the holder spectrum is what’s driving the tape. “Retail is stepping in after the ATH,” he famous, describing a well-known sample of late-cycle enthusiasm that adopted Bitcoin’s push by $120,000 in mid-July. That surge set a brand new file close to $123,000 earlier than momentum light; spot costs are actually revolving round $113,000–$115,000.
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The bid didn’t vanish completely. “Fresh capital did assist the ATH-breakout consumers,” Maartunn wrote, pointing to balance-sheet demand “from companies like Strategy and Metaplanet.” Those purchases are verifiable. Strategy—the rebranded MicroStrategy—disclosed 21,021 BTC purchased between July 28 and Aug. 3 at a median of ~$117,256, lifting its holdings to ~628,791 BTC. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet added 463 BTC on Aug. 4, taking treasury holdings to 17,595 BTC. Even so, these company flows “weren’t sufficient to carry Bitcoin across the ~$120k degree,” the analyst stated.
Where the thread turns extra cautionary is on short-term arms. “Short-Term Holders began to puke and promote at a loss,” Maartunn wrote, quantifying realized-loss waves of 52,230 BTC (July 15–18), 42,493 BTC (July 24–28), and 70,028 BTC “after July 31.” He known as the final episode notable “not simply [for] the scale, however the period,” arguing that extended STH loss-realization is a strain valve that sometimes wants time to exhaust. These are Maartunn’s on-chain tallies; they haven’t been individually printed by information distributors in combination kind.
The flows image from listed merchandise has begun to rhyme with that stress. “ETFs are additionally seeing outflows,” he noticed. Multiple trackers verify a downswing: CoinShares logged the primary web weekly outflow in 15 weeks (-$223 million) with Bitcoin funds main at -$404 million, whereas day by day tallies this week present US spot Bitcoin ETFs bleeding for a number of classes, together with about -$196 million on Tuesday. Framing differs by window, however the route is obvious: the bid from ETFs is wobbling on the margin.
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Technically, Maartunn fixes consideration on the previous breakout zone. “Bitcoin is discovering help round its earlier ATH — roughly $112K,” he wrote, pointing to a confluence between chart construction and on-chain price-distribution. His on-chain map “backs it up,” flagging “sturdy help within the $108K–$112K vary,” an space the place a big quantity of cash final modified arms.
Context issues. Bitcoin’s July all-time excessive sits round $123,000 on main benchmarks—an extension of 2025’s institutional-heavy advance—so calling $112,000 a “earlier ATH” refers back to the nearer-term breakout plateau that preceded value discovery, not absolutely the file. That nuance is why Maartunn concludes with a conditional: “So far this cycle, we haven’t seen any earlier ATH break down… Until that modifications, this seems to be like a traditional pullback. But if we do break under a former ATH ($112k), that’s an actual shift in market habits.”
In the close to time period, the credibility of that ~$108,000–$112,000 “shelf” will doubtless be determined by whether or not provide from profit-taking long-term holders, loss-realizing short-term holders, and ETF redemptions continues to outweigh balance-sheet demand and natural spot inflows. If the shelf holds, Maartunn’s base case is “a traditional pullback” that bleeds off excesses from the ATH push. If it fails decisively, he argues, the cycle could be displaying its first significant breach of a previous breakout—an observable change in habits moderately than a story flip of phrase.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,238.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
