Key takeaways:
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Unlike 2017, long-term XRP holders have already shifted from euphoria into doubt.
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The XRP/BTC pair stays 90% under its 2017 peak and is caught in a distribution zone.
Several XRP (XRP) analysts are referencing outdated bullish charts to foretell new value booms, with a number of commentators, together with CRYPTOWZRD and JD, arguing that XRP’s present value construction mirrors its 2017 bull run.
Back then, XRP spent months consolidating inside an enormous symmetrical triangle earlier than breaking out, briefly retesting assist, after which accelerating by over 11,900% in underneath a 12 months.
Chartists say at this time’s consolidation part is displaying the identical sample, anticipating XRP to achieve a cycle goal of $20.
Conditions in 2025 are vastly completely different, nevertheless, making a repeat of 2017’s features removed from assured.
Long-term XRP holders doubt greater costs
One technique to take a look at whether or not XRP’s 2025 rally actually mirrors 2017 is by trying on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders.
In 2017, when XRP broke out of its large triangle and started its monster rally, the long-term holder NUPL went straight into the Euphoria–Greed zone (blue).
That means holders had been sitting on large earnings and had been nonetheless assured sufficient to experience the rally greater.
Importantly, sentiment by no means slipped again into the “Belief–Denial” stage (inexperienced) till nicely after the highest, displaying robust conviction through the parabolic rise.
In 2025, the scenario appears to be like completely different. Even although XRP has rallied strongly, the NUPL information reveals long-term holders have already moved from Euphoria–Greed down into Belief–Denial.
This part suggests traders are questioning whether or not the rally can final, an indication of hesitation slightly than conviction.
Instead, their temper appears to be like extra prefer it did in 2021, when pleasure gave technique to doubt simply earlier than the market cooled.
XRP value stays weak versus Bitcoin
In 2017, XRP’s surge within the US greenback phrases additionally accompanied sharp features towards Bitcoin (BTC).
Back then, the XRP/BTC pair climbed by greater than 3,700% to over 0.00023 BTC inside a 12 months. That transfer mirrored XRP’s place on the time as one of many few large-cap altcoins providing a payments-focused narrative.
In 2025, the construction is completely different.
XRP/BTC has rebounded to round 0.000025 BTC in September from mid-2024 lows close to 0.000010 BTC. Still, the pair stays about 90% under its 2017 peak.
It is additional testing a long-term distribution zone at 0.000025–0.000030 BTC, the place rallies stalled a number of instances between 2019 and 2022.
The 2017 ICO-driven surge additionally had fewer opponents, with XRP being one of many oldest cryptocurrencies. Today, it contends with rivals like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Sui (SUI), alongside rising stablecoins within the cross-border settlement area.
Related: Altseason received’t begin till extra crypto ETFs launch: Bitfinex
In different phrases, it will likely be a lot tougher for XRP bulls to attain five-digit proportion features this time as they did in 2017.
This article doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
