Key takeaways:
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Buffett’s rising money urge for food has traditionally preceded inventory market crashes.
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A possible Nasdaq downturn will possible pull down Bitcoin, too.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its money holdings to roughly $350 billion by mid-2025, combining Treasury payments and money. That is an all-time excessive for the corporate and the biggest amongst US public companies.
But what does this money pile imply for Bitcoin (BTC), whose value has practically doubled over the previous 12 months to a report $124,500 in August?
Buffett will get into money earlier than main inventory crashes
Berkshire’s money holdings in 2024–2025—reaching $347.7 billion (50.7% of shareholders’ fairness, 28–30% of whole property) in Q1 2025—sign Buffett’s preparation for a possible market downturn.
Buffett has repeatedly raised liquidity during times of market extra. Put in a different way, he has been fearful when everybody was grasping.
In 1998, he led Berkshire to chop inventory publicity and carry money holdings to $13.1 billion, about 23% of whole property.
By mid-2000, money peaked close to $15 billion, or 25% of property, earlier than Buffett lowered the place to purchase bargains after the Dot-Com bubble burst.
Then Buffett once more constructed up his money pile. By Q1 2005, Berkshire’s money and equivalents reached $46.1 billion, equal to 51% of shareholder fairness, the very best degree in that period and closest to present ranges.
Cash remained elevated into 2007 at $44.3 billion, about 29% of whole property, simply forward of the 2008 monetary disaster.
Overheated Nasdaq raises Bitcoin draw back dangers
Buffett’s warning seems extra related given immediately’s fairness valuations.
The Nasdaq’s market cap has surged to 176% of the US M2 cash provide, nicely above the 131% Dot-Com peak, based on knowledge from Maverick Equity Research sourced by The Kobeissi Letter.
Against the US GDP, the Nasdaq now stands at 129%, practically double its 2000 excessive of 70%. These report readings spotlight how far inventory costs have outpaced each cash provide and the economic system.
Bitcoin has risen alongside the Nasdaq, with a 52-week correlation of 0.73. That means more often than not, the highest crypto strikes in the identical route as tech shares.
Buffett’s report money place highlights dangers in equities and crypto as a result of Bitcoin strikes equally to the Nasdaq.
Expanding M2 provide: Bitcoin high is just not in?
However, how Buffett’s report money pile and Nasdaq’s dangers play out will finally rely upon the speed of cash provide progress.
The US M2, which tracks liquid money and deposits, has began to develop once more after flatlining by way of a lot of 2025. By July 2025, it rose 4.8% year-over-year to $22.1 trillion, the quickest tempo since early 2022, based on FRED knowledge.
Earlier within the 12 months, progress was nearer to 2.4%, displaying momentum is choosing up.
Globally, greater than 20 central banks have minimize charges in 2025, and forecasts recommend the Federal Reserve might observe with easing that would push annual M2 progress again towards 10–12%, based on economist Daniel Lacalle.
Historically, Bitcoin stands to learn if US policymakers are compelled to develop the cash provide to defend fairness markets.
Related: Bitcoin value goal ‘sits round $170K’ as international M2 provide reaches report excessive
This is what occurred post-2020, when BTC rose from $3,800 to $69,000 as international M2 ballooned.
“Global M2 (cash provide) has traditionally led Bitcoin by ~12 weeks,” writes analyst CryptoRodo, including:
“Every time liquidity re-accelerates, BTC finally follows.”
This article doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
