JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is ‘Undervalued’—But By How Much?

JPMorgan has thrown recent gas on probably the most sturdy comparability in digital belongings, arguing in a brand new analysis word that Bitcoin now screens “too low cost” versus gold as its volatility collapses to historic lows.

How Undervalued Is Bitcoin?

The financial institution’s cross-asset crew says six-month BTC volatility has fallen from almost 60% at the beginning of 2025 to roughly 30%—a collection low—and that Bitcoin is now solely about twice as risky as gold, the narrowest hole on file. On the financial institution’s volatility-adjusted framework, that compression implies Bitcoin’s market worth would want to rise about 13%—translating to roughly $126,000 per coin—to align with the roughly $5 trillion personal funding market in gold, leaving BTC “undervalued by round $16,000” on this foundation.

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The framing issues. JPMorgan will not be saying Bitcoin must be as giant as your complete gold complicated—jewellery, central-bank reserves and industrial makes use of included—however relatively that on a risk-adjusted foundation, given how a lot much less risky BTC has change into relative to bullion, Bitcoin’s capitalization can justify the next stage than the place it trades at present if one benchmarks in opposition to gold’s private-investment slice of the market. The headline takeaway—“Bitcoin undervalued vs. gold as volatility falls”—was amplified by market-moving account Walter Bloomberg on X, underscoring the purpose that the valuation hole is a operate of volatility as a lot as value.

The financial institution’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, attribute a part of the volatility collapse to an evolving holder base and market construction. They level to accelerating accumulation by company treasuries—which they estimate now maintain greater than 6% of circulating provide—and to index-related dynamics which might be drawing passive capital into equities tied to Bitcoin publicity, each of which dampen day-to-day swings. The cause-and-effect is easy of their telling: a bigger, extra secure base of “sticky” holders lowers realized volatility, which in flip raises honest worth on a volatility-normalized, gold-relative mannequin.

Gold Parity And Beyond

The declare additionally drew a pointed response from business commentators. “It’s solely a matter of time till Bitcoin reaches parity with gold,” argued Joe Consorti, head of development at Theya, calling JPMorgan’s word “a giant admission.”

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In his view, the longer-run vacation spot will not be parity on a risk-adjusted mannequin however outright dominance: “At at present’s market capitalization, Bitcoin would commerce at $1.17 million per coin if it have been equal to the dimensions of gold.” He extends the thought experiment right into a timeline, contending that if Bitcoin and gold merely keep their five-year compound development charges, parity arrives within the early 2030s.

“If Bitcoin and gold merely continue to grow at their present five-year compound annual development charges, parity arrives in late 2031. That would imply a $53 trillion market cap for Bitcoin and a value north of $2.5 million per coin. Even below extra conservative assumptions, the convergence nonetheless occurs within the early 2030s. Because it’s not nearly Bitcoin’s development, it’s additionally about gold dropping market share,” the analyst argues.

JPMorgan simply admitted bitcoin at $112k is undervalued versus gold.

Bitcoin could be $1.17M if it was the dimensions of gold at present.

When will bitcoin attain gold parity, and the way a lot will it’s value?

[B2YB @JoinHorizon_] pic.twitter.com/GvofTvKEef

— Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) August 28, 2025

While these are Consorti’s projections, not JPMorgan’s, they sketch the extra maximalist endpoint of the identical relative-value logic.

At press time, BTC traded at $111,061.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com