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Arthur Hayes believes the lengthy arc of US coverage now factors towards cash creation on a scale that would push Bitcoin into “multi-million” territory—and, in a extra excessive situation, as excessive as $15 million per coin. In a wide-ranging interview hosted by CoinFund’s Chris Perkins, the BitMEX co-founder and famous macro commentator tied the trail of Bitcoin explicitly to a looming political and institutional showdown on the Federal Reserve, arguing that Jerome Powell can delay—however not finally stop—the return of aggressive stimulus beneath a Trump administration.
Bitcoin To $15 Million Possible Under Trump?
From Jackson Hole, the place markets are braced for Powell’s remarks, Hayes framed the near-term setup as a take a look at of the Fed chair’s satisfaction and independence within the face of overt political stress. “Supposedly Powell is that this Volcker 2.0… Do I believe there’s a excessive chance that Powell sticks it out and simply says f*** you to Trump and doesn’t minimize simply because he’s a human and human beings don’t wish to be put in these kind of conditions? Yes,” Hayes mentioned.
He added that whereas “finally the Fed will minimize in some unspecified time in the future,” the chair could refuse to sign imminent easing now exactly to exhibit autonomy: “What a greater strategy to show that you’re an unbiased financial actor than to say no, I’m sticking with my weapons.”
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That posture, nonetheless, solely postpones what Hayes sees because the inevitable: an overtly inflationary coverage combine as soon as Powell is changed or overruled. “Trump and Scott Bessent have laid out precisely what they wish to do. Run it scorching, inflationary,” he mentioned, utilizing the interview to develop a thesis he plans to publish subsequent week on how Washington might weaponize stablecoins to finance the state whereas marginalizing the Fed’s management over front-end charges. In a line that doubles as each meme and coverage critique, Hayes previewed his framing: “I modified the meme… it’s going to say it will get, you already know, it places the {dollars} on its pores and skin or it will get the sanctions once more.”
Hayes contends the coverage lever is easy: pull trillions sitting within the offshore eurodollar system into on-chain greenback stablecoins by withdrawing de facto ensures for non-US financial institution branches and by deputizing US big-tech platforms to distribute yield-bearing greenback accounts globally—backed by Treasury payments. He estimates the full addressable pool at $10–13 trillion from eurodollars alone, with extra “international retail deposits” throughout rising markets.
Once that capital sits in stablecoins, he argues, the Treasury can place payments “at no matter value [it] needs, unconstrained by what Powell or whoever his successor does,” successfully neutering Fed funds whereas making a “sink of tens of trillions of {dollars}” to finance deficits. The geopolitical enforcement mechanism, in his telling, is blunt: deny entry to US monetary rails—or sanction international elites—if native regulators resist.
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The market affect, he says, is unambiguously bullish for crypto. With on-chain {dollars} paying a modest yield, customers can frictionlessly transfer into basis-trade tokens, spend with crypto money playing cards, and publish stablecoins as collateral throughout DeFi. “TVL… ought to go into the tens of trillions fairly rapidly if… US financial authorities observe by means of on this nationwide coverage of pro-stablecoin and let’s shove {dollars} to all these locations on the planet.”
Against that backdrop, Hayes locations Bitcoin on the apex of the danger spectrum. He calls it “one of the best performing asset in human historical past because it launched in 2009,” and rejects the concept latecomers have missed the transfer: “I wouldn’t say that simply since you’re coming in at 2025 and Bitcoin’s at 120,000 or no matter it’s that you just’ve missed the boat. We nonetheless have a protracted strategy to go.”
Pressed on value, Hayes hyperlinks the $15 million determine to a selected personnel end result on the Fed: “If that man [Zervos] will get in, you already know, Bitcoin will likely be at like 15 million as a result of he’s simply going to do yield curve management, you already know, printing cash, rapid 300 foundation level cuts.”
While not a base case, the situation illustrates his conviction that the political financial system factors to structurally looser coverage—and structurally larger Bitcoin. In the rapid time period, Hayes stays absolutely invested and is ready to purchase weak point round Jackson Hole. “If… Powell… doesn’t speak about cuts in any respect and market tanks 15–20%, I’ve acquired some additional money and I’ll be going purchasing.”
At press time, BTC traded at $113,569.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
