Key takeaways:
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Bond market stress has traditionally aligned with Bitcoin cycle bottoms and will sign new purchase alternatives.
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US debt surpassing $37 trillion and elevated 10-year yields level to macroeconomic pressures which will favor Bitcoin in This autumn.
A shopping for alternative in Bitcoin (BTC) could emerge earlier than a powerful rally in This autumn, and the bond markets may play a key position.
According to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson, probably the most dependable indicators to look at is the ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). This measures the additional yield traders demand to carry dangerous company bonds over secure US Treasurys. When OAS spikes, it alerts concern in credit score markets. Historically, these stress factors have usually marked native bottoms for Bitcoin.
Currently, OAS stays comparatively calm, suggesting markets haven’t absolutely priced within the subsequent wave of stress. But if credit score spreads widen within the coming quarter, a standard end result when liquidity tightens, it may set the stage for an additional Bitcoin accumulation section.
The broader macro backdrop reinforces this view. The US nationwide debt has surged previous $37 trillion, requiring greater than $2.6 billion in each day curiosity funds. A latest US credit score downgrade displays concern over this fiscal path. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.3%, up from 3.9% a yr in the past, elevating borrowing prices throughout the economic system.
Wedson believes this mix of fiscal stress and rising yields may finally shake conventional markets, with Bitcoin benefiting instead asset. “An aggressive bear market will occur ultimately,” Wedson stated. “But earlier than it happens, euphoria is the most probably situation. I imagine a lot of 2026 and onward will probably be very unhealthy for the US economic system.”
Related: Bitcoin worth rising wedge breakdown: How low can BTC go?
Strategy buys $54 million in Bitcoin, however whales trace at deeper dips
Institutional demand for Bitcoin stays regular, highlighted by Strategy’s newest buy on Aug. 17. The agency acquired 430 BTC for about $51.4 million at a median worth of $119,666 per coin. This brings its complete holdings to 629,376 BTC.
However, onchain knowledge factors to rising promoting stress amongst Bitcoin’s largest holders. Cointelegraph reported that the variety of mega whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC has dropped to its lowest stage in 2025, with a constant unfavorable 30-day development since mid-July. Similarly, whale wallets within the 1,000–10,000 BTC vary have declined, suggesting profit-taking after latest highs.
Adding to market volatility, almost 32,000 dormant BTC (3–5 years outdated), price about $3.78 billion, was moved in a single switch, the most important shift from this age band in over a yr.
📊MARKET UPDATE: Nearly 32K dormant BTC (3–5y outdated) price ~$3.78B was moved, the most important switch from this age band in over a yr. 👀
(h/t: @JA_Maartun) pic.twitter.com/DfQLabFRKR
— Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@CointelegraphMT) August 17, 2025
Together, these alerts counsel that whereas institutional consumers proceed to build up, broader whale exercise and revived dormant provide could gasoline short-term corrections, conserving volatility elevated.
Related: Dip consumers ‘stopped the prepare,’ 5 issues to know in Bitcoin this week
This article doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
