Bitcoin (BTC) begins the primary full week of August at a crossroads as market nerves mix with a BTC value bounce.
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After bouncing from three-week lows, BTC value motion is fielding combined targets with greater August volatility anticipated.
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The market surroundings is now essentially completely different from Bitcoin’s outdated all-time highs from January, evaluation says.
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Macro circumstances preserve the give attention to the Federal Reserve as September interest-rate minimize bets return.
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Bitcoin hodlers stage a mass sell-off firstly of the month, with even whales lowering publicity.
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Demand for Bitcoin stays firmly in place, serving to add context to short-term market nerves.
$116,500 turns into new BTC value “magnet”
After wicking beneath $112,000 final week, Bitcoin is dividing opinion as information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals a push towards $115,000.
Concerns over an even bigger BTC value correction distinction with the idea that the retracement is over and that BTC/USD is making ready for brand spanking new all-time highs.
$BTC chart could not be extra bullish.
Retest of earlier ATH ✅
Daily Close above SMA 50 ✅
Now, BTC is wanting good for a brand new ATH. pic.twitter.com/JZVFIr4Cjt
— BitBull (@AkaBull_) August 4, 2025
“$BTC has continued its streak of setting the excessive or low inside the first week of the month. We’ll need to see if August goes to be any completely different,” dealer Daan Crypto Trades summarized in his newest evaluation on X.
“What we do know is that the present month-to-month excessive ($116K) has a really low likelihood of holding as we have by no means seen a month-to-month wick excessive this small previously 4 years.”
Daan Crypto Trades in contrast current value strikes to these all through 2025, concluding that volatility has to this point been inadequate.
“The present transfer from excessive to low can also be simply ~3.6%,” he famous.
“There’s additionally a really excessive probability we make a bigger transfer this month. The smallest month-to-month low to excessive distinction inside a month is about 10% for BTC in its previous 4 years. This after all says nothing about course.”
Fellow dealer Crypto Caesar likewise eyed a “huge bounce” for the beginning of the TradFi buying and selling week, whereas evaluating present value motion to strikes seen since May.
Analyzing change order-book liquidity, standard commentator TheKingfisher flagged $116,500 as a key stage at which quick BTC positions would get liquidated.
“Most merchants are in all probability simply staring on the value motion, however good cash is aware of that is the place the gas for a transfer is,” he instructed X followers Sunday, calling $116,500 a “magnet.”
Bitcoin pattern line holds key to deja vu value motion
When it hit outdated all-time highs of $109,300 in January, Bitcoin noticed a retracement which proved to be prolonged and painful for bulls.
By April, BTC/USD was plumbing multimonth lows below $75,000, having put in a drawdown versus the highs of over 30%.
Fast ahead half a yr, and the pair is down nearly 10% in opposition to its newest document peak, resulting in comparisons with the sooner value motion.
For dealer CrypNuevo, there was little cause to suppose that Bitcoin would merely repeat conduct from outdated highs.
“Is January’s Price Action repeating now?” he queried in an X thread Sunday.
“The reversal PA was nearly an identical on the highs since it is a frequent sample for a pullback after lowering momentum. However, the present state of affairs could be very completely different and it is unlikely PA repeats additional.”
CrypNuevo stated that January noticed a visit beneath the 50-day exponential shifting common (EMA), which then flipped to resistance.
The 50-day EMA trendline is at present close to $112,900, with value seeing only one every day shut beneath it on Aug. 2.
“In January, we noticed the 1D50EMA changing into resistance. I doubt we see that now. I believe a deviation beneath it to $110k help ought to doubtless maintain effectively,” the thread continued.
CrypNuevo stated that “market construction and context” differed from January, pointing to the growing odds of a US interest-rate minimize in September.
Consensus once more favors September price minimize
With much less US financial information due, the Federal Reserve is itself within the highlight this week.
The standoff with President Donald Trump continues over rates of interest, which Fed Chair Jerome Powell and different officers opted to not minimize at their newest assembly.
Powell already faces calls to resign from Trump over coverage, which the latter views as too restrictive and dear to the financial system.
“Powell ought to be put ‘out to pasture,’” Trump demanded in a put up on Truth Social Aug. 1.
Mixed inflation information and a robust labor market have allowed the Fed to carry agency on its course, however the most up-to-date jobs figures forged doubt over how lengthy price cuts will be prevented.
Market expectations whipsawed in consequence, however are actually again to favoring an preliminary 0.25% minimize on the Fed’s subsequent assembly in September, per information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
In the approaching days, there will likely be talking appearances from a number of senior Fed figures, together with Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who beforehand signaled that she could be open to a July price minimize.
Earnings outcomes have continued to return in in opposition to a backdrop of stiffening US commerce tariffs.
“Volatility has returned as August formally kicks off with earnings season in full swing,” buying and selling useful resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a thread on X Sunday.
BTC value dip unites giant and small sellers
Bitcoin dipping to new three-week lows beneath $112,000 got here amid an ongoing sell-off involving everybody from smaller retail traders to massive whales.
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant tracked inflows to exchanges and concluded {that a} marketwide de-risking transfer was in progress.
On Aug. 1 alone, over 40,000 BTC hit exchanges at a loss in comparison with when it final moved, and this solely from short-term holders (STHs), entities hodling for six months or much less.
At the identical time, the change whale ratio, which tracks the proportion of inflows from whale wallets, reached “dominating” ranges.
“When giant deposits coincide with whales dominating these deposits, the market sometimes enters a section of promoting strain and speedy decline,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain wrote in one in all its Quicktake weblog posts Saturday.
“If whales proceed to deposit Bitcoin to exchanges on the similar tempo, additional strain on the Bitcoin value is anticipated.”
Bitcoin demand “nonetheless right here” — evaluation
Taking a broader take a look at demand dynamics, CryptoQuant got here to combined conclusions, which ought to in the end favor bulls.
Related: Bitcoin dip making ‘good backside,’ says analyst: Will BTC rally to $148K?
While value volatility has led to speedy adjustments in hodlers’ urge for food to take care of earlier ranges of BTC publicity, long-term traits present that Bitcoin is firmly in demand.
“Some traders are in all probability beginning to fear given the current value drop, particularly STH who are actually both pressured to understand losses or maintain underwater positions. To assess whether or not the state of affairs may worsen considerably, analyzing present demand is crucial,” contributor Darkfost stated in a Quicktake put up Sunday.
Darkfost flagged the Apparent Demand metric, which measures newly mined Bitcoin to the provision that has stayed inactive for the previous yr.
“When the ratio drops beneath zero, it means demand has turned destructive; conversely, when it rises above zero, it alerts constructive demand,” he stated.
“Currently, demand stays clearly constructive, with round 160 000 BTC amassed over the previous 30 days.”
Accumulator wallets, which solely purchase BTC and don’t have any outgoing transactions, have upped publicity by 50,000 BTC over the previous month.
An extended-term view, masking over-the-counter (OTC) offers, likewise reveals a transparent pattern. OTC desk holdings are actually over half 1,000,000 BTC, in comparison with simply 145,000 BTC in 2021.
“Whether we take a look at short-term or long-term demand, the image stays broadly constructive,” Darkfost concluded.
“There is not any main signal of concern from demand-side indicators, regardless of current value volatility.”
This article doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
